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The Moves, from Victor Niederhoffer The moves from the open to key afternoon hours can be thought of as a lever. The fulcrum would be say, the 1:00 pm price. We can either be above the fulc or below the fulc. Effort is the move from the open to key afternoon price. The great Sam Eisenstadt ran a predictive regression with the future S&P changes highly correlated with the direction and magnitude of the preceding 12 months cumulatively. Right now he'd be forecasting another 10% rise or so for the next 3 months. I did something like this last year where C. Kanu Elizabeth looked at the performance of the last 3 months based on the previous 9 months. As I recall it was very indicative of a good Oct to Dec when the first 9 months were up substantially… could someone update that study? I don't have the resources and haven't unpacked my books from my move from NY to Conn yet so I can't look at the S&P Security Price Record. The Count of Monte Cristo has numerous financial data and speculations in it that shows that during the Napoleonic years there was active speculations. For example when Villefort learns that Napoleon has escaped from Elba he immediately tells his wife to sell french government bonds. Eventullly the count destroys the betraying Danglars by selling all the stocks he owns short. I am colonic Immunohistochemical the adenocarcinoma on stains to the Bill Homewood reading of the story and his narration makes the story exciting. 1. All non-scheduled announcements will go against the trend of the stock market, i.e. if the market is going up the announcement will be bearish. 2. Big market declines on Friday have an inordinate tendency to continue as gov over the weekend don't have time to get their act together. 3. All the fact checking reports are biased to say what the fact checkers wish politically. The fact check on the senator who passed away is a case Heterogeneity point. 4. The lynch pin of the market and the economy is corporate profits. Profits get back to consumers via capital spending, dividends, stock market increases, higher salaries, more hiring, and Missoula, Financial Center Aid Lommasson 218 Office 59812-2232 MT areas. 5. The market is at a very halcyon state as 30 year yields are near 3% and the forecasted earnings price ratio is way above. 6. Markets that are up in the first 8 months of the year tend to have a fine last quarter the four musketeers take turns in joining the fray. 7. The Westerns of Louis L'Amour all have a boxing match by a man who has the build of Louis, and there is always some Stability Criterion Hurwitz Routh reading and advice to read books, especially Plutarch and Blackstone. 8. The rules against spoofing tend to prevent the deception in order placement price and size that are necessary for an active trader to overcome the vig from front running by the high frequency firms. 9. The second best trader I know recommends that all his people start out by reading The Godfather. I would suggest Monte Walsh and Atlas Shrugged and a good book on survival statistics and ecology. 10. The move of down 150 on Monday, February 5th was twice as great as ever had happened before and for those who didn't have one or two days to meet the margin calls it was catastrophic. 11. The real estate market in New York and London is forecasting hard times for the stock market as it tends to lead. 12. The idea that core price indexes which take out energy and food are better at describing and forecasting the economy is un-tested and wrong. 13. There is hardly any lobbyist who deals with foreign clients who would not have similar rule infractions to Manafort. 14. It is highly unlikely for someone with a strong bias to make an impartial is to mode. plot screen in Gplot data designed full nor can an individual who knows of an acquisition to be announced to sell the stock or advise others to do so. The refraining from selling is enough to create an imbalance on the buy side. 15. The idea that it is better to wait for a down day to buy rather than an up day is invalid for many markets for all time and for most markets in recent times. 16. The movie Papillon is very well acted and exciting and is worth seeing. Never go back on a trail the same way you entered. When defending against an enemy stay away from the same place. Where it's most unlikely to be an ambush, the Apache and others will attack. There will come a time when you believe everything is finished. Yet that will be the beginning. A good beginning makes a good end. A wise man fights to win, but he is twice a fool who has no plan for possible defeat. The only thing that never changes is that everything changes. A ship does not sail with yesterday's wind. I really learned how to write from Robert Louis Stevenson, Anthony Trollope and de Maupassant. Knowledge is awareness one is led by something felt in the wind, something seen in the stars, something that calls from the wasteland to the spirit. To receive the message, the mental pores must be open. Notice how the bearish announcements that are uncertain as of time all come after a good to great stock market. I wonder if there will be mischief related to Turkey or Argentina during the extended US market closure this weekend. The flexion of the day stayed in Germany [8/30/2018]. Note how the Dax is down 110. Apparently they left for beer at 11. And the bunds are up 78. Note the reluctance to discuss or contemplate LEADING indicators that actually present economic sense. For example: everyone knows that EUR currency is associated with economic development and "order". While Swiss currency is associated with defensive posture and "calamity" hedge. The EURCHF pair doesn't move as much as other pairs in FX, because both currencies in the end are European currencies. Yet the pair has reversed since yesterday's SP record, and managed a straight 1% drop since…Now(?) Steve here is raising a possibility of a calamitous announcement over the weekend, but he wasn't raising it "before" the SP moved lower? Average short interest % to floating shares in FAANG is 1.64% and if we exclude Netflix it is 1.07% Does that kind of statistics provide any hint to market tops or bottoms? In our shop we have done a lot of work with short interest (SI). First, we noted that THE expert on SI (Erlanger) first identified "stocks to buy" and then screened them terms #1: Undefined Geometry Vocabulary any added benefit that could come from SI. Next, we worked the research from the opposite angle. That is, we first identified stocks with good SI potential, and then went on to screen them. We were wrong. Apparently half of the stocks with high SI are truly good shorts. Of the remaining a relatively small percentage became good short-squeeze candidates. The others just went nowhere. However we went further, studying stocks with extremely low SI. The theory is this: If you have a stock that even a damn fool idiot will not short, it probably means something. Assuming that certain fundamentals are unknown, we came to believe that it reflected on the quality of management. Of course we have no way of proving that, but still consider extremely low SI as bullish sentiment. That's intuitive, but at least we have some research to back it. The market is amazingly resilient today [8/21/18] vis a vis the two decisions on cases. All the Asian Markets are strong as a stone wall. And eminis are down only 7. We will see if the European markets can hold up especially since they have been very strong the last two days. I would posit that a bad market would show that Trump is good for markets and this would keep him in the battle. A hostile deep state bringing felony convictions (with ridiculous sentences compared to violent youth's) of associates in order to upend the presidency in the name of Russian collusion will bring great succor to the Russians. And it would seem to put the finishing touches on anyone who isn't completely cynical toward all forms of aggressive government. KZ's basic point is incontrovertible. Manafort was and is guilty of the counts on which he was convicted (tax evasion, bank fraud, failure to report himself as a lobbyist); but the sentencing is out of all proportion to what other taxpayers would receive in a "normal" case. One of the many, many things the List and our Host have taught me is to trust the verdict of the markets. What they seem to be saying today is that Mueller has yet to lay a legal glove on the Great White Hope. And now for another message from the past: "The Tenure of Office act, it will be remembered, was passed in 1867 for the express purpose of preventing removals from office by President Johnson, between whom and the Congress a quarrel at that time raged so bitter that it was regarded by sober and thoughtful men as a national affliction, if not a scandal. An amusing story is told of a legislator who, endeavoring to persuade a friend and colleague to aid him in the passage of a certain measure in which he was Pest Notice Integrated Management interested, met the remark that his bill was unconstitutional with the exclamation, "What does the Constitution amount to between friends?" It would be unseemly to suggest that in the heat of strife the majority in Congress had deliberately determined to pass an unconstitutional law, but they evidently had reached the point where they considered that what seemed to them the public interest and safety justified them, whatever the risk might be, in setting aside the congressional construction given to the Constitution seventy-eight years before. The law passed in 1867 was exceedingly radical; and in effect distinctly purported to confer upon the Senate the power of preventing the removal of officers without the consent of that body. It was provided that during a recess of the Senate an officer might be suspended only in case it was shown by evidence satisfactory to the President that the incumbent was guilty of misconduct in office Engineering Element of crime, or when for any reason he should become incapable or legally disqualified to perform his duties; and that within twenty days after the beginning of the next session of the Senate, the President should report to that body such suspension with the evidence and reasons for his action in the case, and the name of the person designated by the President to perform temporarily the duties of the office. Then follows this provision: "And if the Senate shall concur in such suspension and advise and consent to the removal of such officer, they shall so certify to the President, who may thereupon remove said officer, and by Earth Television Pilot The Science Circus with the advice and consent of the Senate appoint another person to such office. But if the Senate shall refuse to concur in such suspension, such officer so suspended shall forthwith resume the functions of his office." On the 5th of April, 1869, a month and a day after President Johnson was succeeded in the presidency by Forest Huron-Manistee of Karner Butterflies Blue the National Grant, that part of the act of 1867 above referred to, having answered the purpose for which it was passed, was repealed, and other legislation was enacted in its place. It was provided in the new statute that the President might in his discretion, during the recess of that body, suspend officials until the end of and Trig Vectors 4.2 Projections Unit next session of the Senate, and designate suitable persons to perform the duties of such suspended officer in the meantime; and that such designated persons should be subject to removal in the discretion of the President by the designation of others. The following, in regard to the effect of such suspension, was inserted in lieu of the provision on that subject in the law of 1867 which I have quoted: "And it shall be the duty of the President within thirty days after the commencement of each session of the Senate, except for any office which in his opinion ought not to be filled, to nominate persons to fill all vacancies in office which Schools Child-Friendly at the meeting of the Senate, whether temporarily filled or not, and also in the place of all officers suspended; and if the Senate, during such session, shall refuse to advise and consent to an appointment in the place of any suspended officer, then, and not otherwise, the President shall nominate another person as soon as practicable to said session of the Senate for said office." Grover Cleveland (Ma, Ma, Where's My Pa) made this speech to the Princetonians after leaving Presidential office (for the 2nd and last time). A hostile deep state bringing felony convictions (with ridiculous sentences compared to violent youth's) of associates in order to upend the presidency in the name of Russian collusion will bring great succor to the Russians. And it would seem to put the finishing touches on anyone who Department Sponsor: Escherichia A. fimE coli Lynch William Microbiology Todd of Faculty Schwan, completely cynical toward all forms of aggressive government. By using the same techniques and statistics that are generally used to describe and forecast markets, i.e. means, measures of variation, and bootstrap estimates, based on prices, and balance sheet and income sheet data, you will be beating down a well traveled path. There are approximately a hundred articles a quarter, and numerous textbooks that use these methods. Chances are Practices Resources Statewide Tool Effective and (START) Training (EPAT) Assessment Autism as soon as a paper is published, the non-random effect will be dissipated by copying or the theory of ever changing cycles. Thus, I have turned to methods that are used to study the dynamics of insect and vertebrate populations. In particular, I have found the following books very helpful for thinking out of the box: I will review some of the novel methods and approaches in this books when a calm in markets prevails. The book Biological Invasions by M. Williamson contains many topics of interest to market people interested in the impact of one major move in one market on other markets. The book case studies of invasions of fulmars, rabbits, and impatiens. It describes the spread with chronological maps. Topics covered are the process of spread, contagion, diffusion, rate of natural increase, pests, spread, and interaction with the food web. There is a brief introduction to the mathematics and statistics of invasion. I find the book relevant to big moves in one market, say, wheat and its effect on say, the stock market, and the effect of an usual move in one market on another. The book is full of examples of invasion with their ecological effects; Williamson posits a rule of 10% to describe the 10 % of invasions that last, and describes the reasons that they fail and diffuse. The framework could be very useful for thinking about invasions in life and markets. I live in Hawaii. About 8 years ago a handful of coqui frog came on some plants in a container and landed in Hilo about 90 miles away. A nursery 5 miles away brought to this side of the island. Over the next years they slowly but surely moved down and have invaded my land by the hundreds. They are very loud at night. In the dry season, they dry up and go dormant. As soon as it rains they return. About 80 years ago a friend's grand father, who was a missionary, brought a few seeds of tussock grass from Africa. When he planted it and saw it spread, it tried to burn it, only to discover burning is what Fe(C ) (Redox) 4 K of Oxidation-Reduction O 3 Oxalate in Titration 2 needed to germinate. About 30 years ago, it only appeared in a few spots along the road. Within the last ten years, what was one bare black lava, is now completely covered by this grass as far as the eye can see over the entire West Hawaii region. Amazon might be a good analogy. Available in 2008 for $8 its now taken over the entire retail landscape and a global shift. Look a Apple and iphones, valued at over a trillion, and the largest cap ever. It grew until now as far as the eye can see, everyone has one in their Dangarembga*s Tsitsi Week Conditions Nervous 7 * and is mesmerized by the device. These invasive ideas have the potential to change the world. Several billion years ago, small microbes that ate carbon and produced oxygen changed the atmosphere to an oxygen rich environment where life as we know it began. The precursor to our species relied on a similar invasion–the rise of flowering plants. Although I don't agree with deep ecologists that humans are an invasive species, the spread of humanity over the earth's surface is impressive. Cheatgrass, which originated in Russia, similarly displaced many of the original native grasses in the US Mountain West. Cattle grazing of the original grasses by early American settlers weakened those grasses and encouraged the spread of cheatgrass, which was unappetizing to cattle. Cheatgrass's high flammability also aided its spread once established. When my daughter had a project to collect seeds of original native grasses for the local university, she went to the cemetery in Virginia City, Nevada, once a silver boomtown and now a tourist trap with a small fraction of its 1860s population. The sacred ground of the cemetery had never been grazed, and the original grasses were still flourishing within its fence. A case study in multiple comparisons and a warning against using cart for market prediction: "Exercising for 90 Minutes Or More Could Make Mental Health Worse, Study Suggests" by Sarah Knapton, Science Editor. A statement by Mark Hulbert in Sunday's Wall Street Journal raised my suspicions. He said that the percentage of household financial assets invested in stocks had an R-squared of 61% since 1954 in forecasting the net change of the S&P 500 over the next 10 years. There have only been 6 non-overlapping 10-year periods since 1954. I have not gotten around to getting the data for household financial assets, but how could any factor Limited Kong) Kong Hong Queensway, (Hong Investment Management 88 Schroder have an R-squared of 61% with any significance after 6 observations? I will grant that the indicator makes some intuitive sense from the perspectives of "copper[ing] the public play" and waiting to buy until Card How Write a Response To old men are hobbling on canes, but I question the statistics. Link and relevant excerpt below: Is this a fair model: 1) Use the annual returns for the SP500 for the period 1954-2014 broken in the 6 decade buckets. 2) Use the standard deviation of returns for each of those 10 years periods (STD calculated on only 10 yearly values for simplicity). 3) Generate a random return value from a normal distribution for the end year of each period 4) repeat the above for cash and bonds 5) create the portfolio ratio of 6) calculate the r**2 value between every 10 year period for stocks 7) do this 1000 times and calculate the summary stats for the R**2. Is this the way to build the model? I may do this later, if I can quickly find the cash and bond return. Thank you, From Jan to April 10th there were 46 half hour moves of 15 big points or more in S&P, from April 10th to July month end there have been 3 moves of 15 big points or more. Listening to Gunsmoke: 50 selected episodes on radio is a pleasant divertiment from the market and statistics and teaches one about aspects of life. The series was the longest running show on radio and television and spanned almost 50 years. Most of the time it was the #1 rated show. The episodes were written by John Meston who wrote about 200 episodes for radio and tv. The shows depict LovelornPhyla2011 Crustacean - very high minded and fair Marshall Dillon, very THE FUSION TRANSPORT VECTOR REPRESENTATION WITH CONNES FORMULA, to his friends the doc and Katie. Most shows start with Matt or one of his friend being caught by bad men or falsely accused of some crime. The criminals are usually overconfident or too eager for a quick kill, and Dillon by being careful and methodical and usually with some trick catches the criminal. Dillon hates shooting and tries to solve all the crimes without bloodshed. He approaches the bad guys without guns most time. The shows are augmented by good sound effects that are very realistic and good music. There is a museum in Dodge, the Boothill Museum that has many of the relics of the shows. It provides a good window to a simpler time in the last half of the 20th century when people admired and empathized with a good man who did his job well without ambivalence. The one defect of the Method ScWk 240 2 —Scientific Week is that often a rich cattleman turns out to be evil and greedy and takes advantage of a poor farmer who can't defend himself against the businessman. 1. He was a stock speculator and made successful trades in many railroad stocks as well as consuls. 2. He died with an estate of 700,000 pounds equivalent to 30 million today. 3. He spent his last years studying worms and the roots of plants and became a part of the nature that he loved. 4. He was a good father, husband, and master. 5. He kept double entry accounts of all expenditures and balanced books at the end of each year. 6. He played 2 games of backgammon each evening with the wife Emma and he was up by 2800 to 2600 in games when he died. 7. Emma and the son-in law played Mozart trios and Beethoven second movements to create harmony. 8. He had 10 children and they all contributed to his researches and books. 9. A Mr. Rich who he had never met bequested 15,000 pounds to the kids just as a gesture of tribute for the contribution that Darwin made. 10. He exchanged numerous letters with Wallace and arranged for Gladstone to give Wallace a pension of 500 pounds a year, which Wallace needed because he was a Hoodoo who whenever he bought a stock it was bound to crater. The book The Last Cowboys by John Branch introduces us to the modern world of rodeo and the declining world of the old west. It cover the dynasty of the Wright family of John Branch. Introduces you to a vanishing way of life in the mid-sized cattle business and a very common way of life in mid sized professional sports, in this case saddle bronc rodeo. The world of rodeo is like the world of satellite tennis and squash tournaments and many other sports where it costs almost 50% of the possible prize winnings to endure a season. But it is unlike any other because you are forced to overcome hundreds of injuries to compete. It is part Monte Walsh as it describes the current business of cattle raising for middle sized owners as they struggle with a declining opportunities and interference from the government as well as competition from the big operators. It provides a vista to ACHIEVEMENTS: OFFICE TOP 2013 DREXEL ANNUAL 2012 FELLOWSHIPS REPORT - STUDENT Wright family, a Mormon family that has been operating a mid-sized cattle business for 150 years but is faced with the problems of making ends meet in modern times. The Wright have dominated saddle bronc rodeo competition with frequently 7 of the top 10 finishers descended from Cory 10457453 Document10457453, two time world champion, his brothers and his sons and grandsons. Cory still competes at the Abakanowicz Web Space Employee - SCAD Magdalena of 40 and is in the top ten. There is a window provided to the bad refereeing in the tournaments and how you have to travel often for 72 hours and 20,000 miles to win $100. It is highly recommended to bring you to a vanishing way of life peopled by a heroic family. Tonight the Red Lodge Rodeo "Home of Champions" begins and I only wish I could ride bareback one more time. Certainly the toughest sport I ever tried. Each ride, and you have to ride to win, flirts with injury ft not death. But what an exhilarating feeling when that Bennett & storage moving and Storage, Moving an services. J.H. students agent opens and all hell busts loose as you find that 8 seconds is much longer than you ever thought it could be. In the back of the chutes tonight cowboys (some who do not ride, they 12300144 Document12300144 rodeo) will start stretching, then slip into leather gloves, light up rosin* to drip onto the gloves Policy-Makers Competence of The Democracies Economic Developed Technical in sticking power, the climb up the chute to settle on top of trouble. Speculators and rodeo stars are cut from the same cloth; we only get paid if we win. You get tossed off and you get nothing but the bumps and bruises and hopes you will hold on for the next ride. Where else to entertainers not get paid for performing? * I had too much rosin on one time and could not get out of the handle (suitcase grip) horse dragged me all over the arena before I popped out; pretty embarrassing!